Hurricane experts and meteorologists were shocked to see Tropical Storm Beryl continue to rapidly strengthen in the tropical Atlantic Ocean much earlier than storms typically do on Saturday, with record-breaking ocean temperatures helping it make history.
Less than 24 hours after forming into a tropical depression, Beryl’s winds had reached hurricane force – 120 km/h – at 5 p.m. Saturday, with an impressive shape on satellite images.
The National Hurricane Center forecast projected Saturday afternoon that favorable conditions would help Beryl rapidly intensify into a major hurricane — with wind speeds of up to 115 mph — as it reaches Barbados and the fringe of islands that border the eastern Caribbean by Monday morning.
Once it reaches the Caribbean later Monday, it will encounter another stretch of historically warm water for this early summer.
“If you asked the water in the Caribbean Sea what day it is, it would say September 10,” Brian McNoldy, a senior researcher at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, said in a post on X Saturday Morning.
The warm ocean temperatures continue a record-breaking trend that began in May 2023. Like many scientists, McNoldy has been fascinated by the extremely warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. In June, he called the water temperature in the region where hurricanes typically develop in the Atlantic “absolutely astounding.”
On Saturday, he posted on X: “You’d think the shock value of this would wear off, but it’s getting MORE shocking!”
So far in 2024, ocean heat content has been even warmer on most days than the records set last summer. This is dangerous during hurricane season, because hot water is like a big juicy energy drink for hurricanes, providing warm humidity that helps fuel the internal structure that makes storms stronger.
Seasonal forecasters warned in the spring that these warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures could play a major role in storm development this hurricane season. That’s why all the major forecasts predicted a busier-than-normal season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Colorado State University both predicted more named storms this year than they had ever predicted before.
However, hurricane experts are concerned that Beryl could become a major hurricane by July 1, and east of the Windward Islands.
Is it unusual to have an early hurricane?
On Saturday, Beryl became the most powerful storm ever to form in the tropical Atlantic east of the Windward Islands in June, University of Colorado meteorologist and research scientist Phil Klotzbach said in an article published on X Saturday. However, it’s worth noting, he added, that the intensity of storms this far out in the Atlantic may have been underestimated before the satellite era that began in 1966.
Since 1851, only two recorded hurricanes have occurred within 100 miles of Barbados before August 1: Emily in 2005 and Elsa in 2021, Klotzbach published on X.
Across the Atlantic, only five major hurricanes, with winds over 111 mph, were reported in the Atlantic Ocean before the first week of July, said WPLG Local hurricane specialist Michael Lowry. 10 News in Miami, in an article on X.
“It is astonishing to see a major hurricane (Category 3+) forecast in June anywhere in the Atlantic, let alone this far east in the depths of the tropics,” wrote Lowry, a former National Hurricane Center specialist.
Hurricane categories are based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with the lowest being Category 1, with winds of 74 to 93 mph, and the highest, Category 5, with wind speeds of 157 mph or more. Lowry said there had never been a Category 4 or 5 observed until July 8, when Hurricane Dennis reached that status in 2005.
What is rapid intensification?
It’s a phenomenon that occurs when a storm strengthens by at least 35 mph in 24 hours. Beryl’s winds increased by 40 mph in 24 hours after it formed Friday afternoon.
Rapid intensification has been one of the biggest frustrations for hurricane forecasters. The four most destructive Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall on the continental United States in the past 100 years have rapidly intensified.
For years, hurricanes intensified quickly with little or no warning, but today the technology to observe the environment around a hurricane and the ability to discern what may happen is better than never, even if they are still not perfect.
Scientists still don’t know why some storms intensify quickly, but they do know that it requires near-perfect atmospheric conditions inside and outside the storm.
How are hurricanes formed?A USA TODAY visual report on the birth and power of fierce storms
What are the forecasts for Beryl in Haiti and Jamaica?
Beryl is forecast to move west-northwestward, passing over or near Jamaica and Haiti on Wednesday. In a glimmer of hope, the hurricane center announced Saturday that despite warm temperatures in the Caribbean, Beryl’s life as a major hurricane may be short-lived.
Wind speeds are expected to begin decreasing by Wednesday, as windier conditions over the Caribbean are likely less likely to help Beryl maintain its strength. Winds can shear or disrupt cloud tops during hurricanes, breaking up the powerful inner core that helps a hurricane reach the upper echelon of wind speeds.
Hurricane Tracker: Updates on the path of each storm
However, the hurricane center warns that there is significant uncertainty in the four- and five-day forecast, and that residents and tourists in the central and western Caribbean should monitor Beryl’s progress.
Why is the water temperature so hot?
Climate change driven by fossil fuel emissions is having a continuing impact on oceans, which have absorbed much of the excessive warming for decades, scientists say.
This spring, weak trade winds helped reinforce warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, Klotzbach said.
But experts remain somewhat baffled by last year’s sudden rise in temperatures and ocean heat that continues to break records more than a year later. Their research continues.
Dinah Voyles Pulver covers climate and environment issues for USA TODAY. Contact her at [email protected] or @dinahvp.
