The U.S. men’s national team created a mess with its 2-1 loss to Panama on Thursday night in Atlanta. Although it currently sits second in Copa America Group C and technically still in control of its own destiny, it likely needs a win over Uruguay and a boost from last-place Bolivia against Panama.
Here are the scenarios by which the United States will advance to the round of 16.
The United States will qualify if it does better against Uruguay than Panama did against Bolivia. This could manifest itself in several ways.
• USA wins while Panama draws or loses.
• USA wins or draws while Panama loses.
If the United States and Panama get the same result in their respective matches, then everything will be decided on goal difference. Currently, the U.S. national team has a two-goal advantage, plus-1 to minus-1.
• If the United States and Panama draw, the United States would qualify due to the better goal differential.
• If both the United States and Panama win, there will be three teams with six points, and goal difference will be taken into account. The United States will have to make sure their margin of victory is large enough to keep Panama from making the difference.
• The only way for the United States to catch up with Uruguay is to beat them The Celestial by four goals. If the score was lower, Uruguay would be ahead of the Americans in the tiebreaker thanks to goal difference.
• Panama’s margin of victory is expected to be two goals greater than that of the U.S. national team. If the two teams are tied on goal difference, the next tiebreaker will be goals scored, followed by a head-to-head matchup between the three teams.
• If both the United States and Panama lose, the United States would have to avoid losing by three more goals than Panama. If Panama can close the two-goal gap, the two teams could end up tied on goal difference. Bolivia would also factor into the equation, as three teams would be on three points.
If two or more teams are tied in terms of points, goal difference and goals scored, the tiebreaker will be determined as follows:
• Highest number of points obtained in group stage matches among the teams concerned.
• A greater goal difference in group stage matches between the teams concerned.
• Highest number of goals scored in group stage matches among the teams concerned.
If the teams are still tied, the tiebreaker will be as follows:
• Fewer red cards.
• Fewer yellow cards.
• By drawing lots.
