IndyCar’s strange 2024 schedule could work against Palou

We’re halfway through the 2024 IndyCar season and there are clearly a trio of drivers who we believe are the leading contenders for the title.

Behind them are riders who have been fast but inconsistent, consistent without reaching that peak performance, too error-prone or too deficient in other areas to sustain a challenge.

Especially when Alex Palou, the driver turned consistency expert, is in the race. When he was eliminated in Detroit last month by Josef Newgarden, Palou ended his 24-race streak of finishing eighth or better. And he’s not even our current favorite.

We’ve taken a deep dive into the data to identify the trio of contenders most likely to win the title. We’ll highlight their strengths and weaknesses at the remaining circuits and ask them what could help them win the championship – or what could take it away from them.

Who are the favorites + who is missing something?

The current top three in the standings – Alex Palou, Will Power and Scott Dixon – are the favorites.

Dixon has a 36-point advantage over the chasing pack, which is significant but not insurmountable.

But Andretti’s fourth- and fifth-place pair, Colton Herta and Kyle Kirkwood, have opposing issues that mean they’re nowhere near even with the elite trio at the top.

Herta has had his highs but has made plenty of mistakes, while Kirkwood has been very consistent but has yet to score a podium – the top three in the championship all have at least three top-three finishes already.

The three drivers behind the Andretti duo with victories all made too many mistakes – Pato O’Ward, Scott McLaughlin and Josef Newgarden.

So just to clarify, we are not saying that these drivers can’t win, but that is unlikely at this stage without a serious turnaround in form And a grave misfortune for those on the front line.

The favorite: Scott Dixon

Yes, we’re making Dixon the favorite to top three, despite sitting third in the championship at the halfway point. The Ganassi driver is chasing a seventh title, which would tie AJ ​​Foyt’s record and Foyt’s record for wins.

Why is he the favorite if he is third?

Dixon may be lagging behind right now, but the stats are in his favor.

For this feature, we analyzed a set of statistics. We take a sample from 2021 and beyond, since that’s when Palou first drove a competitive car—joining Ganassi after his first year at Dale Coyne in 2020—to get representative data across all three.

With this data, on the tracks already frequented by IndyCar and which will be on the program this year, Dixon has a better average of results than Palou and Power. These are Mid-Ohio, Iowa, Toronto, Gateway and Portland.

For the ranking below, we calculated the average final position of each driver on these tracks for each season (2021-23, we have also put this ranking below), then we calculated an average of the three seasons.

Best driver on the remaining 2024 circuits each season

2021
Palou – 8
Dixon – 8.67
Power – 13.67

2022
Dixon – 4.33
Power – 5.17
Palou – 8

2023
Dixon – 3.67
Palou – 3.67
Power – 9.67

From there, we take each driver’s average, add them together, and divide by three to get an average for those three years on those tracks:

Dixon 5.56
Palou 6.56
Power 9.5

The news is getting better for Dixon. There are two tracks we haven’t visited in the three-year period we’re analyzing, Milwaukee (last visited in 2015) and the Nashville superspeedway, which IndyCar hasn’t used since 2008.

In Milwaukee, Dixon has a 6.17 ERA over 12 races, while Power has seven starts and a 9.57 ERA. There are two races at the Milwaukee Mile this year, and while the 2015 experience may not be the deciding factor, it is that experience that Dixon can draw on.

The same can be said of the final in Nashville. The record books are looking even better for him there.

Power has only competed once, finishing 11th, but Dixon has won the last three races at the venue and has an average of 3.17 from six starts.

In Toronto and Portland, Dixon also had the best scoring average of the top three since 2021.

He has the most experience and a very strong set of stats to back it up.

Average ranking in Toronto 2021-2023
Dixon 3
Palou 4
Power 14.5

Average Ranking in Portland 2021-23
Dixon 3
Palou 4.67
Power 13.33

What could stop Dixon?

His Ganassi teammate Palou is Dixon’s biggest problem, as he is a considerable rival who has won two of the last three titles and is imperious in his consistency.

He’s also in the sister car, which works both ways for this pair, but it still makes emerging at the top a little more difficult. Power has the excuse of a different team with Penske and a different horsepower at Chevrolet compared to Honda and Ganassi.

Qualifying is also not Dixon’s strong point and as things stand he is unlikely to emerge victorious in the championship unless he improves on it.

Average starting position 2024
Power 5.62
Palou 6.75
Dixon 10.5

He starts an average of five positions behind Power in every race. Strategy can’t do you much good when you’re constantly at a disadvantage.

He’s also finished outside the top 10 twice this year, in a tricky dual-strategy race at Barber and when his tires mysteriously failed at Road America. That’s why he’s third.

Sure, the introduction of the new hybrid engine at Mid-Ohio and a series of engine issues earlier in the season could lead to penalties later in the season. But it could also hurt other contenders.

Competitor #2: Willpower

It seems ridiculous to put current leader Palou in third place on this list, but with six of the last nine races on ovals, it opens up the element of opportunity for his rivals and Power could strike.

Power had to defend his title with difficulty in 2023 and spent much of his time thinking – understandably – about the health of his wife Liz after serious problems. This year, she is recovering and back on the track, and Power has been very strong, his mind focused on matters on track.

He has the best qualifying average of the three favorites, is the best at Iowa and Gateway since 2021 in the statistical range we’re using, and generally appears to be in similar form to 2022, when he simply put together very solid races in a fairly low-key manner on his way to a second IndyCar title.

Unlike Palou, he has races under his belt at Milwaukee (pictured below) and one at Nashville as well. So while his track record isn’t on the level of Dixon’s, Team Penske is generally dynamic on ovals and Power could benefit from that on the team and manufacturer side compared to his rivals, even if he’s not historically as good as Dixon on ovals.

Iowa Average Ranking 2021-23
Power 3
Dixon 5.25
Palou 7.5

Average Final Position at Gateway 2021-23
Power 6
Dixon 9.33
Palou 12

There have also been numerous incidents in this group of races that have specifically injured Power in the past.

In 2023, he ran out of gas at Toronto, finishing 14th, and finished 25th after a spin at Gateway. In 2021 at Mid-Ohio, he was hit by Dixon and then Ed Jones, which put him out of the race in 25th. So there are anomalies in his data.

What could stop him?

Power has only one win in 2022, but he will undoubtedly need to win more this year. He has been very consistent, but he hasn’t looked like he can win many races, so he will need to rectify that.

Despite a strong track record at Iowa, the track has been partially resurfaced and there was a crash in last week’s practice. Some have suggested that Penske’s setup advantage at the track since 2022 will have been at least slightly reduced ahead of this year’s race.

So far, he has finished all but one of his races in the top seven. The only time he failed to do so was in the Indianapolis 500 crash, won by his teammate, and that could well backfire on him.

Don’t underestimate Palou

Palou won five races last year, so if he repeats he will win the championship.

Of course, this may not be a realistic suggestion – so let’s get into some more tangible data.

He’s the top of the trio since 2021 at Mid-Ohio, has the best average finish this year and has the second-best average starting position, just over one spot behind Power. And this year, he’s been in the top five in every race except Detroit, where, as we mentioned earlier, he was eliminated.

Average finish rank at Mid-Ohio 2021-23
Palou 2
Dixon 3.67
Power 10.33

If he wants to win, he will have to hope that Dixon and Power’s experience on the new ovals and their results on the existing ovals are not completely out of his reach.

While some may question his averages on existing ovals, the difference isn’t really significant. He hasn’t won a race, but he’s improved several times over the years in some aspects of his oval racing and continues to learn. The Indy 500 came naturally to him, but short, technical ovals have their quirks.

He’s proven he can handle some of them – like in Iowa, where he took a decisive podium finish last year.

Average result so far in 2024
Palou 4.88
Power 6.25
Dixon 7.25

What could stop him?

While Palou hasn’t been bad on ovals and has improved, he simply can’t afford to be down in six of the last nine races. He’ll need to continue to improve, as well as capitalize on road and street courses to pad his points tally.

The stats don’t tell the whole story, such as at Gateway where his finishing average is six places lower than Power’s, but that’s largely down to a 20th-place finish in 2021 when he was hit by Rinus Veekay – an incident that affected Dixon and also hurts his average there.

Avoiding any off-track controversy – a lawsuit brought by McLaren is unlikely to go to trial until next year, so a repeat of the legal problems that have plagued its title runs may not be on the cards – and avoiding the usual engine penalties and poor reliability will be key areas to watch.

It feels like it’s only a matter of time before he gets the hang of the shorter ovals, so Dixon and Power better take advantage of it while it’s still the case and we have new ovals on the calendar.