AL Central Check-in: Guardians Lead, Twins and Royals In Contention


Every day, Pinstripe Alley offers updates on what the Yankees“The best opponents in the American League are up to the task Rivalries at a Glance. The AL East is a familiar territory, but with June coming to a close, we’re taking a look at MLB as a whole and examining each of the other five divisions. Who’s surprising? Who’s disappointing? Who’s just plain mediocre right now? Read on to find out.

Top Player: Steven Kwan (3.5 fWAR)
Best pitcher: Tanner Bibee (2.0 fWAR)

Without major upgrades to an offense that was fourth worst in runs last season and after losing ace Shane Bieber to a UCL injury, the Guardians have somehow found their way to the best record in the American League through June (running percentage over Baltimore). Steven Kwan is a big part of that turnaround, hitting . 368 and playing Gold Glove-caliber defense in left. David Fry is also having a breakout season with the bat, and José Ramírez remains José Ramírez. Emmanuel Clase has been the best shortstop in baseball, and Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith have also been key pieces in the bullpen.

Against all odds, it’s been Cleveland’s rotation that has been their Achilles heel. Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively have been solid, but the Guardians’ other starters have struggled mightily. Carlos Carrasco, Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie all have ERAs above five. A former 2022 playoff starter, McKenzie was demoted to Triple-A yesterday and Gavin Williams was reinstated from the roster to take his place, a move that could inject some stability into the rotation.

Top Player: Carlos Correa/Willi Castro (2.9 fWAR)
Best pitcher: Joe Ryan (2.3 fWAR)

The Twins had mixed results. Edouard Julien was unable to replicate the success he had last season and ended up being sent down. Rising star Royce Lewis was injured once again. But Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton both remained healthy and effective, while Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers and Jose Miranda made big strides.

Like the division leaders, Minnesota’s biggest questions come from the pitching department. Joe Ryan has been excellent and Simeon Woods Richardson appears poised to stick around at the MLB level. But the rest of the rotation has been a disappointment. Most surprising is the regression of Pablo López, who finished in the top 10 of the Cy Young last year but has struggled to post a 4.88 ERA so far in 2024. Jhoan Duran has also been unstable in the slugging role, though Jorge Alcala and Griffin Jax have stepped up to the point where they could be in contention for bigger roles if the reigning ninth-inning pitcher continues to open the door.

Top Player: Bobby Witt Jr. (4.8 fWAR)
Best pitcher: Cole Ragans (3.1 fWAR)

The Royals have been one of baseball’s most pleasant surprises so far this year, though June brought a regression from their 12-15 start that saw Cleveland extend its lead and Minnesota overtake Kansas City.

Still, Bobby Witt Jr. remains a legitimate MVP candidate, hitting .312/.363/.534 with 22 steals, alongside an elite shortstop defense. Salvador Perez continues to prove himself with the bat, as does newcomer Freddy Fermin, who is splitting time at catcher. And while some of the Royals’ other young hitters (MJ Melendez, Nelson Velázquez) have struggled, their rotation has been among the best in baseball. Kansas City’s five starters have all had above-average ERA+, while Seth Lugo, at 11-2 with a 2.17 ERA and 196 ERA+, has been among the best pitchers in baseball.

The unit holding the Royals back is their revamped bullpen. Of the six relievers who have made at least 30 appearances, each has an ERA above 3.50. Kansas City closer James McArthur has a 4.28 ERA, though he has been more effective recently, posting a 1.80 ERA in 10 June innings.

Top Player: Riley Greene (2.2 fWAR)
Best pitcher: Tarik Skubal (2.8 fWAR)

After several years of rebuilding and disappointment, the Tigers looked to take a step forward this year. Among position players, Riley Greene got the message, hitting .253/.350/.480 with 15 home runs and solid defense at all three outfield positions.

The rest of the offense has been unremarkable. True rookie Colt Keith hasn’t looked prime-time ready, and Javier Baez is still as bad as any hitter in recent memory (his 26 wRC+ makes his 2023 abysmal 61 wRC+ look like his prime). Former top prospect Spencer Torkelson struggled so badly that he was sent down, and with just a few weeks to his 25th birthday, he’s gone from young prospect to potential bust.

Their sluggish lineup has kept Detroit from capitalizing on what has been an impressive rotation. Tarik Skubal is healthy and a legitimate Cy Young contender, going 9-3 with a 2.32 ERA and 112 strikeouts in 97 innings. Reese Olson and Jack Flaherty aren’t far behind, both with bottom-three ERAs. Jason Foley has emerged as the Tigers’ tight end, bolstering a no-name team that has struggled at times this year. Ultimately, though, the Tigers will need a quick offensive turnaround to get back in contention.

Top Player: Paul DeJong (1.2 fWAR)
Best pitcher: Garrett Hook (3.7 fWAR)

There are bad teams and terrible teams; and then there are the 2024 Chicago White Sox. Their best hitter by OPS+, Luis Robert Jr., is hitting .205 with a .279 OBP. Andrew Benintendi has been almost unbelievably futile at the plate, hitting .196/.246/.300. The White Sox’s top four relievers all have ERAs over four.

Chicago’s only bright spots have come from their rotation. Erick Fedde has been a new man since returning from the KBO, with a 3.23 ERA and 128 ERA+ in 17 starts. But it’s Garrett Crochet who’s been the real revelation. After spending parts of three seasons in the bullpen, he got his first opportunity to start this season and seized it, striking out one of the best pitchers in MLB. 141 batters in 101.1 innings with a 3.02 ERA and an AL-best 2.37 FIP.

Given the state of the franchise, the left-hander should be the prize of this year’s trade deadline, and should be available alongside any other players in Chicago who aren’t yet locked in. (But, uh, good luck trying to move Benintendi.)

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