Celtics vs Mavs Predictions, Picks, Last Minute Odds

Is an absent Kristaps Porzingis enough to bring the Dallas Mavericks back to the NBA Finals? The Boston Celtics have already won 10 playoff games without him, so maybe everything is going well for them.

Factoring this into Celtics vs. Mavericks predictions can help add value to our free NBA picks ahead of tip-off on Wednesday, June 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

For more analysis of Game 3 of the NBA Finals, check out our parlay picks in the same Celtics vs Mavs game!

Celtics vs Mavs Prediction

My best bet
Derrick White More than 15.5 points (+108 to the Césars)

Best odds available in your area

That number has risen from 14.5 — or even 13.5 with heavy juice — since he first committed to backing up Derrick White for a third straight game. He didn’t climb enough.

With Kristaps Porzingis out for Game 3, his offensive chances fall disproportionately to White, as surprising as that may seem given their 10-inch height difference. With Porzingis out for 11 of Boston’s 14 playoff games heading into the Finals, only three true Boston Celtics contributors saw their usage rate climb from the regular season.

Jaylen Brown’s rose by half a percent, Al Horford’s by 1.8 percent, and White’s by 1.6 percent to 20.3 percent.

Most notably, since Porzingis’ initial injury, White has averaged nine 3-point attempts per game while shooting 40.2 percent from beyond the arc. That rate alone almost gets him to that point prop, even that inflated point prop.

Losing Porzingis doesn’t change who White has to beat. It’s not like Derek Lively II will guard the 6-foot-4 point guard. He’ll still face Kyrie Irving or Luka Doncic, while Jayson Tatum will see more double teams or Al Horford will face the more athletic Lively. In all of these scenarios, white people should only have more space to work with.

And he doesn’t need a lot of space these days to score a lot.

Betting on the Celtics star player against the Mavs

My best bet
Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 points (-105 at Pinnacle)

With Porzingis ruled out for Game 3, the rim will be that much more open for Dallas. Instinct might expect this to benefit Daniel Gafford or Lively on lobs, but Kyrie Irving has to live in the lane as well.

The only player on the Dallas roster to own a ring, Irving has yet to participate in these NBA Finals, scoring only 28 points in total. Luckily for that thought, he kept shooting, taking 37 shots in total.

Irving won’t stop shooting, and he’s too good a player to expect him to keep missing. Porzingis’ absence will give Irving more space to operate, and once he finds a rhythm, he’ll be able to fly over that prop.

Celtics vs. Mavs odds

Celtics vs. Mavs live odds

Get the latest Celtics vs Mavs NBA playoff odds for Game 3

Celtics vs. Mavs opening odds

• Spread: Boston +1.5 (-110) | Dallas-1.5 (+110)
• Money line: Boston +100 | Dallas-120
• More less: Over 212.5 (-110) | Under 212.5 (-110)

Celtics vs Mavs Spread and Over/Under Analysis

• Despite losing the first two games of this series by 18 and then seven points, the Mavs opened as 1.5 to 2 point favorites on Sunday night. That number dropped to -1 at some sportsbooks early Monday, but rose back to -1.5 by the end of your first cup of coffee of the week.
• A line favoring Dallas is an exaggerated jump in the spread, considering Boston was a 6.5 and 7 point favorite in the first two games. Adjusting that type of spread to account for usual home-court advantages would have made the Celtics 1.5 or 2 point favorites in Game 3. The incentive of the 2-0 deficit explains the Mavs’ expected added advantage.
• The total opened at 212.5 and rose to 213 overnight before returning to its opening figure throughout Monday.

Celtics vs Mavs trend

Since remaking the roster at the trade deadline, Dallas is 14-8 ATS at home. Check out more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Mavs.

Celtics vs. Mavs Game Info

Celtics’ latest injuries vs. Mavs

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