College Football Playoff Predictions: Texas vs. Oklahoma State Impact


How big is the Red River battle this year between No. 3 Texas and No. 12 Oklahoma State?

It’s huge. This may be the last time a Big 12 game happens between Texas and Oklahoma unless they meet again in the conference championship game. Next year, they’ll be in the SEC. Both teams are undefeated entering Saturday’s game (noon ET, ABC/ App), with the winner taking a big step toward the Big 12 title race.

Texas-Oklahoma also has a huge impact on the College Football Playoff race: It’s the second-most impactful game remaining before the conference championship game, according to Allstate playoff projections Penn State vs. Ohio State on October 21st.

Currently, Oklahoma State (53%) and Texas (50%) are the second and third-highest teams entering the CFP, behind only Ohio State (54%).

Here are Oklahoma and Texas’ chances of making the College Football Playoff, depending on Saturday’s results:

Oklahoma wins: 72%
Oklahoma loss: 30%
Texas wins: 73%
Texas loss: 29%

Oklahoma State also has a chance to win. The Sooners have a 24% chance of finishing the regular season 12-0. They have a greater than 88% chance of beating all non-Texas games remaining in the regular season (54% chance of beating Texas).

This game also has a huge impact on your chances of reaching the Big 12 Championship Game:

Oklahoma wins: 96%
Oklahoma loss: 70%
Texas wins: 91%
Texas loss: 67%

The playoff race remains incredibly close: 10 teams have at least a 20% chance of making the CFP, and 13 teams have at least a 5% chance.

Meanwhile, at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission…

Another leveraged game is Kentucky-Georgia in the SEC East. The Bulldogs are the favorite (86% chance to win), but if Kentucky can pull off an upset win, it will have a big impact.

A chance to win the SEC East, depending on the outcome:

Kentucky wins: 38%
Kentucky loss: 1%
Georgia wins: 87%
Georgia loss: 40%

Likewise, Alabama-Texas A&M has made a big impact in the SEC West. According to FPI, Alabama has a 66% chance of winning.

Chances of winning SEC West, depending on outcome:

Alabama wins: 86%
Alabama loss: 34%
Texas A&M wins: 42%
Texas A&M’s loss: 2%

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