Next stop, Dallas.
Edmonton’s high-octane train sets out to meet its latest and most daunting challenge. One way or another, the McDavid era is already nine seasons old. But it’s only the team’s second appearance in the Western Conference Finals since its franchise-changing draft day in 2015.
It’s no secret that the Oilers live and die by their superstars. As a team with limited scoring depth and inconsistent goaltending in a salary cap world, this has become part of their identity. Even though this formula has not proven itself in the past, the playoffs are intended to survive. And Edmonton survived.
The Oilers superstars, meanwhile, have thrived. In two rounds and 12 elimination matches, all Leon Draisaitl (24 points), Zach Hyman (11 goals), Connor McDavid (19 assists), and Evan Bouchard (20 points) are on historically significant offensive trajectories this playoffs.
Of course, halfway through their quest for the Stanley Cup, there’s still plenty of work to do. We know it. They know that. Hunter, their rather terrifying lynx mascot, knows it.
But for now, we’re comparing these torrid starts to playoff highs. Using era-adjusted playoff stats to provide a fair fight, we’ll compare the 2024 Oilers to the best hits of Gretzky, Lemieux and Orr, while celebrating every special NHL playoff performance since the ‘expansion. All on board…
Note: All statistics are for two playoff rounds in 2024.
Points
How we got here: against the Kings (5/5/10 in 5 games); against the Canucks (03/11/14 in 7 games)
Most points adjusted for the Cap era: 1. Evgeni Malkin, 2009 (40 in 24 games); 2. Nikita Kucherov, 2021 (36 in 23 games); 3. Logan Couture, 2016 (35 in 24 games)
Era-adjusted points record: Mario Lemieux, 1991 (42 in 23 games)
2024 playoff performances: Draisaitl is a weapon in the playoffs, with his career production increasing more than that of any modern forward. He has been Edmonton’s most consistent threat, putting up points in all 12 playoff games, averaging exactly two points per night in both series. His career adjusted points per game (1.70) behind only Gretzky (1.89) and Lemieux (1.74) since his expansion to age 28. The parallels with Malkin — whose 40 adjusted points in 2009 are No. 1 in the cap era — are striking. Each is a statuesque, silky center that harnesses the shadow of the game’s best player to emerge from study to co-star every spring.
Chasing the record: The 2024 playoff scoring is 5.9 goals per game in 12 of the 15 NHL series. This is only 2.5% lower than the neutral 6.0 goals per game used in the era-adjusted score. This means that so far, any player’s 2024 numbers have not required adjustment. Assuming the scoring declines a bit over the final three rounds, Draisaitl will need 17 points to reach Lemieux’s adjusted zenith of 42 in 1991. Half of his power play points (6 goals, 6 assists) are a alarm signal, because penalties tend to decrease. disappear in June. So, Draisaitl will need 5-on-5 scoring and continued power play conversion (37.5%) to chase down Lemieux and Gretzky.
Goals
How we got here: against the Kings (7/1/8 in 5 games); against the Canucks (4/1/5 in 7 games)
Most goals adjusted for the Cap era: 1. Daniel Alfredsson, 2007 (18 in 20 matches); 2. Sidney Crosby, 2009 (17 in 24 games); 3. Logan Couture, 2019 (16 in 20 games)
Era-adjusted goals record: Reggie Leach, 1976 (20 in 16 games!)
2024 playoff performances: The Oilers’ relentless presence on net continues to shine. He managed to surpass his shocking regular season pace (54 goals in 80 games), scoring 11 times in 12 games. Hyman’s total includes a four-game goalless drought against Vancouver, a rare lull that brought Edmonton’s season to the brink. Remarkably, Hyman began the year with just 19 goals in 60 postseason games, never scoring more than once in five first-round outings in Toronto. But times are different now; he and McDavid are best friends on the ice with benefits.
Chasing the record: Hyman will need eight or nine goals, final adjustments pending, to match Leach’s 1976 masterpiece. It remains Smythe’s only winning performance by a skater in a losing cause. Hyman didn’t have to rely on the Oilers’ vaunted power play, with seven of his 11 goals coming at even strength. With the most shots in the playoffs (50) and a shooting percentage (22%) not out of line with his regular season mark (18.6%), the 31-year-old is legitimately within range.
Aids
How we got here: against the Kings (01/11/12 in 5 games); against the Canucks (1/8/9 in 7 games)
Most adjusted assists in the Cap era: 1. Nikita Kucherov, 2021 (27 in 23 games); 2. Nikita Kucherov, 2020 (26 in 25 games); 3. Leon Draisaitl, 2022 (25 in 16 games)
Era-adjusted assist record: Wayne Gretzky, 1987 (30 in 21 games)
2024 playoff performances: If you thought McDavid’s 100-assist regular season was a shoot-first clinic, he did it all in these playoffs. His 1.58 adjusted assists per game so far would be the best qualifying rate ever. But when you’re the greatest talent in the world, nitpicking comes with the title. Oddly quiet for stretches against Vancouver, Game 5 was their worst outing in over four years. The Oilers captain only scored one goal at even strength. In fact, he didn’t record an even-strength point in seven of 12 games, collecting his all-time high game damage in some outings.
Chasing the record: With 19 assists in 12 games, only McDavid can look ordinary at times and have such a big impact. Like Draisaitl, he’s been here before. During the run to the 2022 Western Conference Finals, McDavid dished out an incredible 23 assists in 16 games. Does he have 10 or 11 assists in two series to catch Gretzky’s adjusted record? Of course he does. In fact, it would be more of a routine by his high standards. Yes, he will face better teams and goaltenders (sorry Cam Talbot and Arturs Silovs). But if the Oilers reach the final, that era-adjusted record will be reported.
Points from a defender
How we got here: against the Kings (1/8/9 in 5 games); against the Canucks (4/7/11 in 7 games)
Most points adjusted for the Cap era: 1. Cale Makar, 2022 (29 in 20 games); 2. Brent Burns, 2016 (27 in 24 games); 3. Miro Heiskanen, 2020 (25 in 27 games)
Era-adjusted points record: Brian Leetch, 1994 (38 in 23 games)
2024 playoff performances: It’s difficult to reconcile how exceptional Bouchard has been during the playoffs, as there is usually a public lag in his reputation behind elite performances. His steady series against Vancouver, with a team-high 11 points and four even-strength goals, makes a strong case for Conn Smythe. Paired with Mattias Ekholm, Bouchard has a +10 record and an average of 24:19 per night – both team highs in the playoffs.
Chasing the record: Bouchard is the leading defenseman with 20 points in two rounds, so he’s off to a perfect start when it comes to chasing records. The problem with defender points is that they can be difficult to replicate. Power plays are hot and cold, point shots need a bit of luck to become goals, and there is some reliance on forwards to finish plays. But Bouchard is shooting with swagger (40 shots) these days. He’ll only need six or seven points in the third round to slip into the top five from expansion, although Leetch’s jaw-dropping 38 adjusted points look intimidating at No. 1.
Final Thoughts
As always, all eyes will be on Edmonton’s big guns.
All the ingredients come together to intrigue… A cast of stars. A hockey crazy market. A generational savior at the height of his powers. Dynamic individual performances over two laps. A former city of champions – 34 years removed from the Stanley Cup – salivating for a title.
To break one of the adjusted total records at the time, the Oilers will have to play in the Stanley Cup Final games. If they do not progress, adding new individual achievements will offer little consolation.
Whatever the outcome, enjoy the wild ride of this high-voltage group with offense in their veins and Cup dreams in mind.
Follow @AdjustedHockey on X; Data from Hockey-Reference.comNHL.com
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