The Euro 2024 group stage is starting to take shape with the second round underway.
Who could book their progression in the second set of matches? Who has work to do? We review the six groups and define the permutations.
The first two teams from each group advance to the round of 16, as well as the four best runners-up. The third-ranked scenarios are at the bottom of the article.
This article will be updated after each group stage match.
QUALIFIED (1/16): Germany
TIE BREAK:
If the teams are tied on points, they will be decided according to the following criteria:
1. Face-to-face
2. Head-to-head goal difference
3. Head-to-head goals scored
If three teams are tied on points, a mini-league is created bringing together only the results of matches between the teams concerned.
4. If after applying steps 1 to 3, some teams are still at the same level, this is reapplied only to those teams. For example, England, Slovenia and Serbia are tied on points; after applying 1-3, England are first but Slovenia and Serbia cannot be separated in the three-team mini-league. The direct face-to-face between Slovenia and Serbia would determine second place.
If teams still cannot be separated, the following measures are applied:
5. Group goal difference
6. Group goals scored
7. Penalties, if the two teams face each other on the last day
8. If they do not confront each other, reduce the disciplinary points (1 yellow point, 3 red points via two yellows, 3 direct red points, 4 yellow points followed by direct red)
9. Overall standings for European qualifiers, unless Germany is involved. If Germany is involved, then it will be a draw.
group A
Results:
Germany 5-1 Scotland
Hungary 1-3 Switzerland
Germany 2-0 Hungary
Scotland 1-1 Switzerland
Remaining meetings:
June 23
Switzerland vs. Germany
Scotland v Hungary
Germany: Germany is qualified and will top the group with a win/draw against Switzerland.
Swiss: A draw against Germany will ensure a safe passage to second place.
Switzerland would top the group with a win, relegating Germany to second place.
Switzerland will certainly be second in defeat if Scotland draw/lose. If Switzerland loses and Scotland wins, second place will be decided on goal difference (see Scotland section), although four points will most likely be enough to qualify for third place.
Scotland: To finish second, Scotland must win and Switzerland must lose with a goal difference of at least six. If a six-goal swing occurs and the goal difference is equal (e.g. 2-0, 0-4 to put both teams at 4-6), then lower disciplinary points will decide who will occupy second place. Switzerland.
However, a win to put them four points behind should be enough in third place.
A draw for Scotland, who would finish with two points, would not be enough to secure the best third place.
Hungary: We need to beat Scotland to finish above them with three points in third and hopefully that will be enough. However, their goal difference is minus-4, so they would need a big win to have a realistic chance of continuing.
Group B
Results:
Spain 3-0 Croatia
Italy 2-1 Albania
Croatia 2-2 Albania
Remaining meetings:
June 20
Spain vs Italy
June 24
Albania vs. Spain
Croatia vs Italy
Spain: Spain will qualify as group winners if they beat Italy.
Italy: Italy will qualify as group winners with a victory against Spain.
Albania: Cannot qualify or be eliminated on Day 2.
Croatia: Cannot qualify or be eliminated on Day 2.
Group C
Results:
Slovenia 1-1 Denmark
Serbia 0-1 England
Remaining meetings:
June 20
Slovenia vs. Serbia
Denmark vs England
June 25
England v Slovenia
Denmark vs Serbia
England: Will qualify with a victory against Denmark, who will be group winners if Serbia win/draw the previous match.
Denmark: Cannot qualify or be excluded from top two on day two.
Slovenia: As with Denmark, nothing can be decided in their match against Serbia.
Serbia: Won’t be able to finish top two if they lose to Slovenia, and will be eliminated completely if Denmark then beat England.
Group D
Results:
Poland 1-2 Netherlands
Austria 0-1 France
Remaining meetings:
June 21st
Poland vs. Austria
Netherlands vs. France
June 25
France vs Poland
Netherlands vs. Austria
The Netherlands: The Netherlands will qualify with a victory, who will be group winners if Poland win/draw the previous match on Friday.
France: France will qualify with a victory, which will be the first in the group if Austria wins/draws the first match.
Poland: They can’t finish top two if they lose to Austria and France and then win or draw.
Austria: They will not be able to finish in the top two if they are beaten by Poland and the Netherlands (win/draw).
Group E
Results:
Romania 3-0 Ukraine
Belgium 0-1 Slovakia
Remaining meetings:
June 21st
Slovakia vs. Ukraine
June 22
Belgium vs Romania
June 26
Ukraine vs Belgium
Slovakia vs Romania
Romania: Romania can seal their qualification with a victory over Belgium, who will move into the top two if Slovakia secures a win/draw against Ukraine.
Slovakia: If Slovakia manages to secure a victory against Ukraine, they will qualify, and they will be in the top two if Romania wins/draws against Belgium.
Belgium: Will not be able to finish in the top two if Slovakia wins/draws against Ukraine and Belgium loses against Romania. Would remain in the race to move into third position.
Ukraine: They cannot take an automatic place if they lose to Slovakia and Romania then win/draw against Belgium. But there would be a final showdown with Belgium for third place.
Group F
Results:
Türkiye 3-1 Georgia
Portugal 2-1 Czechia
Remaining meetings:
June 22
Georgia vs Czechia
Türkiye vs Portugal
June 26
Czechia vs Türkiye
Georgia vs Portugal
Turkey: Turkey will qualify with a victory, which will be the first in the group if Georgia wins/draws the first match.
Portugal: Portugal will qualify with a victory, who will be group winners if Czechia wins/draws against Georgia.
Czechia: Will be eliminated if they are beaten by Georgia and Turkey win/draw.
Georgia: Will be eliminated if they lose to Czechia and Portugal, then win or draw.
Ranking of the best teams ranked third
The four best runners-up will advance to the round of 16.
This format was in place during the two previous editions, and each time four points ensured progression. At Euro 2020, Ukraine slipped through with three points. At Euro 2016, Northern Ireland and eventual winners Portugal managed with three points.
It is still very early to determine how many points will be needed.
The third place ranking is determined primarily by:
1. Points
2. Goal difference
3. Goals scored
4. Victories
5. Lower disciplinary points
6. Overall standings for European qualifiers, unless Germany is involved. If Germany is involved, draw.
Although this is the current top six, the rankings can flip very quickly when another team rises to third place in a group or drops there.
