By becoming familiar with your opponent’s tricks, it will be easier to stop them. While Liberty and Sun met in the playoffs last year, our WNBA picks expect a low-scoring affair.
Saturday, June 8 will see a clash between the WNBA’s elite as the 9-2 New York Liberty takes on the 9-0 Connecticut Sun.
My Liberty vs. Sun predictions think the mutual familiarity, lineup versatility, and early start time bode for a game where defense takes center stage and leads us to an Under. Find out more in the WNBA picks ahead!
Liberty vs Sun Predictions
My best bet
Under 158.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
These teams have some of the greatest continuity in the W and have faced each other a lot recently, including a close four-game playoff series last season.
They will know the rotations and tendencies of both sides, where to stand, who to leave and who to blitz, guard or trap. It’s when guesswork is taken out of the equation and thinking stops that defenses work optimally.
New York Liberty point guard Courtney Vandersloot is also officially doubtful for personal reasons, and her absence weighs heavily when considering the total. While Sabrina Ionescu is an excellent primary ball handler, Sloot is one of the best field generals to ever succeed. She facilitates every Liberty offensive possession and slides Ionescu into her most effective off-ball attacking role.
Without Vandersloot, Liberty’s offense can get bogged down during your/my turn, which isn’t good enough against a Connecticut Sun defense as strong as this one. This also means that the Sun has quality comparison options for each of New York’s stars and vice versa.
Not only can Connecticut match New York’s size with traditional groups, but the Sun can play smaller with Alyssa Thomas at center to counteract whenever the Liberty wants to play with Breanna Stewart at the five. Few teams have this kind of roster versatility, and it favors the defense because neither team will ever be at a size or speed deficit.
DiJonai Carrington and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton have arguably been the two best perimeter defenders through the first quarter of the season, and each will make a dent in the other team’s offense from the wing.
Then there is also the question of the timing of this match at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Morning games are difficult for W players. After playing and traveling, most professional ballplayers are more likely to return to their nighttime habits. Getting into full rhythm outside of one’s regular schedule can be difficult, and in such games the defense is often ahead of the offense.
The Sun and Liberty are both already bottom 4 in pace, and it’s hard to imagine them creating extra possessions in what is functionally a morning game for them.
Parlay Liberty vs Sun in the same match (SGP)
Under 158.5
Brionna Jones Under 14.5 points
Sabrina Ionescu Under 2.5 three
The Sun are at their most dynamic when they spread the court and Thomas plays a small ball five, which has partly contributed to Brionna Jones’ decline in minutes and scoring this season. Jones is also a traditional big who hits 80% of her shots from 10 feet and beyond.
It will be tough against Jonquel Jones, as the former MVP is one of the longest, strongest and most mobile rim protectors in the league.
Sabrina, for her part, will miss the easier attempts generated by Vandersloot, and struggling against Carrington has made even the best guards wilt this season.
Learn how to bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.
Liberty vs. Sun odds
Liberty vs Sun live odds
Get the latest Liberty vs. Sun WNBA odds for tonight.
Liberty vs. Sun Opening Odds
- Spread: New York +1 (-115) | Connecticut -1 (-105)
- Money line: New York -110 | Connecticut-110
- More less: Over 159.5 (-110) | Under 159.5 (-110)
Liberty vs Sun spread and Over/Under analysis
- There is a lack of consensus on Saturday’s broadcast. While most books have the undefeated Sun between -1 and -1.5 points favorite over the Liberty on Friday night, some have the Liberty at -1.5.
- The total came in at 159.5 but was down slightly to 158.5 for most sportsbooks.
- The Under are 4-0 in New York’s last four away games as well as 4-0 in the Sun’s last four games overall.
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Liberty vs. Sun Trend
The Under are 4-0 in Connecticut’s last four games. Check out more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sun.
Liberty vs Sun game information
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Montville, CT |
| Date: | Saturday 6-8-2024 |
| Trick : | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Latest injuries from Liberty vs Sun
Freedom: Nyara Sabally F (Out), Courtney Vandersloot G (Doubtful).
Sun: Moriah Jefferson G (questionable).
Find our latest injury reports from the WNBA.
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