Caio Borralho’s unbeaten record in the UFC is one of the many reasons he’s so heavily favored over Paul Craig, but our UFC picks see value in Craig’s tendency to come out on his shield .
Paul Craig faces Caio “The Natural” Borralho in the first fight on tonight’s main card for UFC 301 betting.
There is only one spot separating these two in the middleweight rankings, with Borralho at No. 14 and Craig at No. 13. However, there is a huge gap on the UFC odds board with “The Natural” as the -550 favorite and Craig. at +370.
With such lopsided odds, I let you know the best angle to bet with my Craig vs. Borralho picks and predictions for May 4.
Craig vs Borralho Prediction and Picks
Analysis of the fight
Caio Borralho is on a 13-fight winning streak and is 5-0 in the UFC. However, he still doesn’t have a win against a ranked opponent, and that line seems too wide against a veteran like Paul Craig.
Craig has lost three of his last four fights, but this is a guy with 17 fights in the promotion who has shown the ability to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Craig has scored surprise victories over Magomed Ankalaev, Jamahal Hill, Nikita Krylov and, most recently, Andre Muniz when he knocked him out in his middleweight debut last summer.
Craig is a worker with sloppy striking and poor offensive wrestling; However, he is massive for this division and is extremely dangerous on his back.
We saw Borralho engage in extended exchanges with Michal Oleksiejczuk, Armen Petrosyan, Makhmud Muradov and Gadzhi Omargadzhiev. While Borralho’s fighting and control was on another level than those guys, he will be playing with fire if he uses this game plan against a BJJ specialist like Craig.
Borralho’s superior athleticism and more complete skill set should make him the favorite, but not at -475. This is a dog or pass friendly place if you look at the moneyline.
Best Best Analysis
Borralho hasn’t been a great finisher lately, with seven of his last nine fights going to judges’ cards. That said, he knocked down Abus Magomedov in his last fight and attempted submissions multiple times against Oleksiejczuk and Muradov in his previous two fights. The Natural has power in his hands and a solid submission game, while Craig is a glass cannon.
Craig has been replaced twice and knocked out four times in the UFC, and his chin may be even more compromised now that he’s moving up to 185 pounds. However, he also has a 100% finishing rate himself, with his 17 career wins coming the distance (four by KO/TKO and 13 by submission).
If Craig is able to pull off an upset, he’ll have to do it by stoppage, and if he doesn’t turn things around, there’s a good chance he’ll finish early himself.
Craig vs. Borralho odds
| Method of victory | Craig | Borralho |
|---|---|---|
| To win outright | +370 | -550 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +1000 | +210 |
| Win by points | +1,100 | +215 |
| Win by submission | +1000 | +200 |
| Draw | +2,500 | +2,500 |
Odds from 5-4-2024.
Bet on the UFC on BET99!
One of the best sportsbooks in Canada for UFC betting, join BET99 and get a 100% match on your first deposit up to $1,000 using promo code BET99 COVERSBONUS!
*Not available in Ontario
The story of Craig versus Borralho
| Craig | Borralho | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 31 |
| 6 feet 4 inches | Height | 6 feet 2 inches |
| 185 pounds | Weight | 185 pounds |
| 76 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 17-7-1 (4 KOs) | Save | 15-1 (4 KOs) |
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
