Sports Mole previews Thursday’s Leagues Cup clash between San Jose Earthquakes and Los Angeles Galaxy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Another episode of the Californian Clasico will take place on Wednesday when Earthquakes in San Jose host the Los Angeles Galaxy in Leagues Cup action from PayPal Park.
In their opening match of the tournament, the Goonies beat Guadalajara 4-3 on penalties to move into first place in the West 2 standings with two points, while the Galaxy have yet to play a Leagues Cup match this year.
Match Preview
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More than 50,000 spectators watched a memorable final at Levi’s Stadium last weekend, which ended with the Quakes holding their nerve in the penalty shootout.
Ian RussellThe men had taken the lead after just six minutes but were pegged back in the 98th minute, failing to win in 90 minutes for a fourth consecutive game in all competitions.
It may not have been three points, but it was the first points this team had picked up in the League Cup, while they also found the back of the net for the first time in this competition.
A win on Wednesday would take them past the group stage of this tournament for the first time, in what will be only their second Leagues Cup game at PayPal Park.
Last year, they suffered a 1-0 defeat to Tigres in their final group game played at PayPal Park, while they have lost their last two games against MLS opponents.
San Jose has not lost a competitive game by scoring first since mid-May, when the Portland Timbers came from behind to beat them 4-2.
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It feels like it’s been forever since the Galaxy were a powerhouse team in MLS, but they’re one of the teams to catch right now, leading the Western Conference with 49 points.
That’s two more than their El Trafico opponents, Los Angeles FC, and 35 more than their Silicon Valley state rivals, who sit at the bottom of the Western Conference standings.
Greg VanneyThe team’s men have already accumulated 13 more points in the 2024 MLS regular season than in 2023 while scoring 50 goals this year, one fewer than a year ago.
A loss on Wednesday would mark the first time this year that LA has suffered back-to-back away defeats against MLS opponents after losing 2-0 to Dallas earlier this month.
Their adaptability has allowed them to have much more success in 2024, with the Galaxy showing more of a willingness to sit back and absorb pressure, in contrast to the generally possession-based tactics employed by Vanney.
Los Angeles has won its last four games against San Jose and is undefeated in its last six visits to PayPal Park.
San Jose Earthquakes League Cup Form:
San Jose Earthquakes form (all competitions):
Los Angeles Galaxy form (all competitions):
Team News
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In their opening match of this tournament, San Jose was missing Daniel Munie with a blow, Carlos Akapo has a lower body problem, Bruno Wilson recovering from a knee injury and JT Marcinkowski is in rehabilitation after a torn anterior cruciate ligament.
Niko Tsakiris And Medina Cross are on international duty at the CONCACAF Under-20 Championship for the United States and Mexico, respectively, with Emmanuel Ochoa also representing the Mexicans at this tournament.
Daniel makes a save, canceling a missed Paul Mariewhile former Quakes forward Cade Cowell also failed, allowing Victor Costa to score the winning penalty for the Goonies in the penalty shootout.
LA was without Julien Aude in their 3-2 win over the Portland Timbers due to a blow, Dejan Joveljic will be questionable with hamstring strain and Gaston Brugman suffers from knee discomfort.
From their 3-2 loss to the Colorado Rapids to that aforementioned win over Portland, the Galaxy made two changes to their starting 11. Martin Caceres And John Nelson entered the training instead of Mauricio Cuevas And Jalen Neal.
Goals of Gabriel Pec, Riqui Puig And Joseph Paintsil helped them outlast the Timbers in a thrilling match at Dignity Health Sports Park.
Possible starting lineup for the San Jose Earthquakes:
Daniel; Kikanovic, Rodrigues, Beason, Costa; Yueill, Morales; Espinoza, Lopez, Pellegrino; Ebobisse
Possible Los Angeles Galaxy starting lineup:
McCarthy; Yamane, Neal, Yoshida, Nelson; Delgado, Cerrillo; Pec, Puig, Fagundez; Paint
We say: San Jose Earthquakes 1 to 3 Los Angeles Galaxy
There are too many weapons for the Quakes to contain in this one, so we think it will only be a matter of time before the Galaxy breaks through and takes over this game.
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player statistics up to an hour before kick-off, suggested that the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles Galaxy win with a probability of 40.54%. A victory for Earthquakes in San Jose had a probability of 36.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely score for a Los Angeles Galaxy the victory was 1-2 with a probability of 8.56%The most likely scores for this outcome were 0-1 (6.43%) And 0-2 (5.41%). Most likely Earthquakes in San Jose the victory was 2-1 (8.05%)whereas for a draw it was 1-1 (10.17%).
