Sports Mole previews Friday’s Leagues Cup clash between Toluca and Chicago Fire, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Faced with potential elimination from the League Cup, the Chicago Fire will fight Toluca Thursday from SeatGeek Stadium in Bridgeview, Illinois.
It will be the first match of the tournament for Toluca, who drew 1-1 with Cruz Azul in their previous Liga MX encounter, while the Fire were unable to maintain their early advantage against Sporting Kansas City, losing that Leagues Cup match 2-1.
Match Preview
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Toluca have started their Liga MX campaign in a positive way, as they are one of five teams in the Apertura 2024 without a defeat after four matchdays.
Their form in front of goal is one of the main reasons why they sit fifth in the table, scoring the second-most goals so far (seven).
Renato PaivaThe team’s men are currently on a five-match unbeaten run in all competitions, having kept three of those outings clean.
In their two Apertura away games this season they have picked up just one point, while Toluca have not won a game as visitors since Matchday 16 of the Clausura campaign in April (5-1 against San Luis).
The Diablos Rojos have a 100% record in the group stage of this tournament, beating eventual finalists Nashville SC (4-3) and Colorado Rapids (4-1) last year, while scoring multiple goals in each of their Leagues Cup games.
They have never lost to an MLS opponent in regulation time in this tournament, going out in the round of 16 of last year’s Leagues Cup against Minnesota United on penalties (4-2).
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It’s often happened by the narrowest of margins, but the Chicago Fire can’t seem to find a way to win close games, losing by just one goal in eight games in all competitions this year.
Four times in 2024, Frank Klopas saw his team squander a 1-0 lead and fail to hold on to it, including in their opening match of this tournament.
Their defeat to SKC is the first time they have lost a Leagues Cup group game in normal time, having failed to win any of their last four competitive games.
In three of their last four games in this tournament, the Fire have failed to score in the first half, losing the only time they did so in Kansas City on Sunday.
A further defeat on Thursday would officially eliminate them from the competition in the group stage for the first time.
Chicago have never beaten a Mexican team in this competition, although they did earn a point in the group stage against Puebla last year, drawing 1-1 before losing in a marathon penalty shootout 10-9.
Toluca Form (all competitions):
Chicago Fire League Cup Form:
Chicago Fire form (all competitions):
Team News
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Juan Escobar was once again unavailable for Toluca in their draw against Cruz Azul as he struggles with an unknown injury.
From the third to the fourth day of the Apertura, we saw three newcomers in their starting eleven Claudio Baeza, Ernesto Vega And Maximiliano Araujo replaced Victor Arteaga, Jesus Angulo And Jean Meneses.
Goalie Tiago Volpi was among their top scorers at this tournament last year, as he and Marcel Ruiz Both scored twice.
Once again, the fire did not occur. Carlos Teran Or Frederic Navarro available last weekend due to leg injuries, while Gasper Hunt is recovering from a hamstring strain.
André Gutman came for Arnaud Souquet with 11 minutes remaining on Sunday, his first appearance since suffering a hamstring injury, while Xherdan Shaqiri was again absent from action as he has been since representing Switzerland at Euro 2024.
Georgios Koutsias gave Chicago the lead after 22 minutes last weekend, the 20-year-old Greek forward’s first goal of 2024.
Possible composition of the Toluca starting eleven:
Volpi; Garcia, Luan, Pereira, Gallardo; Baeza, Amaya; Dominguez, Vega, Araujo; Paulinho
Possible Chicago Fire starting lineup:
Richey; Shannon, Salquist, Souquet; Herbers, Gutierrez, Gimenez, Acosta, Hailé-Sélassié; Barlow, Koutsias
We say: Toluca 2-0 Chicago Fire
Losing by such narrow margins time and time again can weigh heavily on a team, and it seems the Fire can’t break out of this current slump despite their best efforts.
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player statistics up to an hour before kick-off, suggested that the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 65.61%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a victory for Chicago Fire had a probability of 15.68%.
The most likely score for a Toluca the victory was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%The most likely scores for this outcome were 2-0 (9.46%) And 1-0 (8.26%). The most likely score was 1-1 (8.53%)while for a Chicago Fire it was winning 1-2 (4.4%).
