The good news is that the Mariners were able to maintain their slim two-game lead in the American League West through no fault of their own. Thanks to the Twins, the Astros’ climb back up the standings was somewhat slowed last weekend. The bad news is that the M’s weren’t able to take advantage of Houston’s setback. They suffered what was probably their worst loss of the season on Sunday, and all of a sudden, the Rangers are climbing back up the standings with a four-game winning streak. The Mariners desperately need some kind of spark to maintain their lead in the standings, and maybe this trip to California will be just the thing.
In one look
| Seamen | Fathers |
|---|---|
| Seamen | Fathers |
| Game 1 | Tuesday July 9 | 6:40 p.m. |
| RHP Logan Gilbert | Right-handed pitcher Adam Mazur |
| 54% | 46% |
| Game 2 | Wednesday July 10 | 3:40 p.m. |
| Right-handed relief pitcher Bryce Miller | Relief pitcher Michael King |
| 44% | 56% |
Team presentation
| Preview | Fathers | Seamen | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preview | Fathers | Seamen | Edge |
| Beating (wRC+) | 114 (2nd in the Netherlands) | 93 (12th in American League) | Fathers |
| Commissioning (FRV) | -8 (9th) | 2 (9th) | Seamen |
| Starting pitcher (FIP-) | 102 (8th) | 92 (3rd) | Seamen |
| Bullpen (FIP-) | 97 (8th) | 95 (5th) | Seamen |
Awkwardly positioned as “natural rivals” by MLB schedule makers, the Mariners and Padres have faced off in a split home-and-home series nearly every season since 2015 — the pandemic-shortened 2020 and 2021, the last season with an unbalanced schedule, were the two exceptions. Overall, Seattle wins the Vedder Cup 65-62 and has won the season series the past two years.
After overcoming their lengthy rebuilding cycle by making the playoffs in 2020, the Padres have unfortunately made just one more playoff appearance, reaching the NLCS in 2022. That’s despite plenty of investment from ownership and aggressive trades from the PBO and GM AJ Preller. They’ve already made some bold moves this year, acquiring Dylan Cease just before the season began and then adding Luis Arraez in May. They’re currently in the midst of a crowded NL Wild Card race and have been playing solid baseball since a slow start to the season in April.
Composition of the Padres
| Player | Position | Bats | Pennsylvania | K% | BB% | ISO | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Position | Bats | Pennsylvania | K% | BB% | ISO | wRC+ |
| Luis Arraez | 1B | L | 400 | 5.8% | 3.8% | 0.069 | 110 |
| Jurickson Profar | LF | S | 372 | 15.1% | 12.4% | 0.183 | 163 |
| Jake Cronenworth | 2B | L | 381 | 17.1% | 7.6% | 0.171 | 121 |
| Manny Machado | 3B | R | 356 | 21.1% | 7.0% | 0.152 | 110 |
| Donovan Solano | DH | R | 170 | 19.4% | 7.1% | 0.117 | 120 |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | L | 331 | 16.9% | 4.5% | 0.163 | 122 |
| David Peralta | RF | L | 81 | 19.8% | 7.4% | 0.082 | 87 |
| Ha Seong Kim | SS | R | 364 | 15.7% | 12.9% | 0.155 | 108 |
| Kyle Higashioka | VS | R | 119 | 31.1% | 4.2% | 0.307 | 119 |
The Padres are currently without their second-best hitter, as Fernando Tatis Jr. has been out since late June with a leg injury. It’s absolutely crazy to say that Tatis isn’t San Diego’s best hitter, but Jurickson Profar is in the midst of a truly incredible season. Nearly all of his batted ball performances have improved dramatically, and he has the seventh-best wRC+ among qualified hitters. With Tatis out, Jackson Merrill has done a lot to compensate. Drafted as a shortstop, the 21-year-old rookie was sent to center field this spring and has started the year slowly as he adjusts to big league pitching. And a new position. Since the beginning of June, he has a 160 wRC+ with nine home runs.
Probable launchers
Stuff+ Update Explanation
Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images
Right-handed pitcher Adam Mazur
| Intellectual property | K% | BB% | % FC/FC | GB% | TIME | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intellectual property | K% | BB% | % FC/FC | GB% | TIME | FIP |
| 26 1/3 | 12.3% | 13.9% | 7.7% | 34.4% | 7.52 | 5.45 |
| Not | Frequency | Speed | Tips+ | Breath+ | BIP+ | xwOBA |
| Four seams | 41.0% | 94.7 | 78 | 52 | 104 | 0.423 |
| Lead | 3.1% | 93.8 | ||||
| Gear switch | 10.7% | 90.0 | 84 | |||
| Curve | 12.0% | 80.5 | 108 | |||
| Slide | 33.3% | 86.8 | 126 | 80 | 98 | 0.220 |
The Padres’ severely depleted starting rotation, plus injuries, forced them to recall Adam Mazur in early June; the Cease trade left him as the most major-league-ready pitching prospect in the San Diego organization. He was a second-round college pick in the 2022 draft, giving him a leg up on some of the less-developed prospects in the system, and a stellar minor-league season last year also elevated his status. He earned minuscule walk rates in the minors but has resorted to chipping around the zone in the big leagues, leading to a huge increase in free passes. His slider appears to be an above-average offering, but the rest of his repertoire leaves a lot to be desired.
Relief pitcher Michael King
| Intellectual property | K% | BB% | % FC/FC | GB% | TIME | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intellectual property | K% | BB% | % FC/FC | GB% | TIME | FIP |
| 105 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 38.6% | 3.51 | 3.85 |
| Not | Frequency | Speed | Tips+ | Breath+ | BIP+ | xwOBA |
| Four seams | 25.4% | 93.5 | 83 | 97 | 94 | 0.355 |
| Lead | 25.9% | 92.7 | 86 | 122 | 102 | 0.335 |
| Gear switch | 24.5% | 86.5 | 89 | 115 | 129 | 0.256 |
| Slide | 5.2% | 86.2 | 125 | 71 | 76 | 0.436 |
| Sweeper | 19.0% | 81.8 | 125 | 94 | 91 | 0.265 |
Michael King was one of the star pitchers who joined the Padres in the Juan Soto trade last December. He transitioned from a bullpen role to a starting pitcher last summer and provided nine phenomenal starts for the Yankees late in the season. He continued to be a starter for San Diego and has been a solid pitcher for them this year. Adding a sweeper to his arsenal a few years ago helped push his strikeout rates well above league average and an improved changeup has given him the deep repertoire to thrive in longer outings.
The big picture:
Western League Standings
| Team | WL | %P | Games behind | Recent form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | WL | %P | Games behind | Recent form |
| Seamen | 48-43 | 0.533 | — | LWWLL |
| Astros | 46-44 | 0.511 | 2.0 | WWWLL |
| Rangers | 43-48 | 0.473 | 5.5 | LWWWW |
| angels | 37-53 | 0.411 | 11.0 | LLWLL |
| Athletics | 34-58 | 0.370 | 15.0 | WWLWL |
American League Leaders and Wild Card Rankings
| American League leaders | WL | %P | Games behind | Recent form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American League leaders | WL | %P | Games behind | Recent form |
| Orioles | 57-33 | 0.633 | — | WLWLW |
| Guardians | 56-33 | 0.629 | — | WELCOME |
| Seamen | 48-43 | 0.533 | — | LWWLL |
| AL Wild Card | WL | %P | Games behind | Recent form |
| Yankees | 55-37 | 0.598 | +4.5 | LLLWL |
| Twins | 52-39 | 0.571 | +2.0 | Wow… |
| Red Sox | 49-40 | 0.551 | — | WWWLW |
| The Royals | 49-43 | 0.533 | 1.5 | WLLLW |
| Astros | 46-44 | 0.511 | 3.5 | WWWLL |
As mentioned above, the Astros lost their dramatic weekend series to the Twins. Seven batters were hit by pitches in the series, and while none of the injuries appeared serious, there was certainly no love lost between these two teams. Houston returns home this week to host the Marlins for three games. The Rangers have suddenly jumped up the standings with a sweep of the Rays last weekend and a win over the Angels in their series opener in Anaheim yesterday. The two Texas teams are headed into a huge showdown this weekend.
