Although the New York Liberty enters Saturday among the East’s best, the Los Angeles Sparks offer significant betting value when they grace the Barclays Center as a massive double-digit underdog. For more, see Ed Scimia’s analysis below.
The struggling Los Angeles Sparks will look to defy the odds and end their five-game losing streak when they take on the New York Liberty this afternoon.
The Liberty (13-3) are the big favorites in the WNBA against the Sparks (4-12), whom they beat 93-80 at Barclays Center on Thursday.
While Los Angeles winning the rematch may be a pipe dream, my Sparks vs. Liberty predictions expect Aari McDonald & Co. to provide bettors with a safe haven for underdog betting.
Let’s dive into our WNBA picks for Saturday, June 22.
Sparks vs. Liberty Predictions
My best bet
Sparks +15.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The New York Liberty are living up to their reputation as WNBA title favorites so far this season. New York is just a half-game behind the Connecticut Sun for the best record in the league, has a +9.0 point differential and has the best offensive rating in the WNBA at 107.5.
The reasons for New York’s success are not subtle. The Liberty are loaded with talent, including Breanna Stewart (19.1 ppg), Sabrina Ionescu (18.6 ppg) and Jonquel Jones (17.1 ppg) – each of whom can single-handedly destroy a match for his opponents on the offensive side.
However, even if the Liberty are heading towards victory, they have not always achieved the goal sought by bettors. Oddsmakers have made them favorites by more than 10 points nine times, and New York has covered in just one of those games.
The Los Angeles Sparks saw an already disappointing season take a demoralizing turn Tuesday when rookie Cameron Brink suffered a torn ACL against Connecticut. Brink had already become a key contributor for Los Angeles, and the former Stanford star’s continued improvement could have helped his team stay in the playoff race.
But even though Brink was a big help on the Sparks’ defensive end, she wasn’t yet a big offensive contributor, averaging just 7.5 points per game so far in her rookie campaign. Los Angeles may not have the superstar-laden roster of the Liberty, but Dearica Hamby (17.7 points per game) and company have already proven they can hang with New York and other top teams level.
We saw it on Thursday, as Los Angeles stayed within seven points at halftime before Liberty’s final drive pulled away in the third quarter. The Sparks showed their depth by playing 10 different players, nine of whom scored in the game. And while New York’s victory was never in serious doubt, it didn’t cover the 14.5-point spread.
The Sparks are in the middle of a brutal road trip where they have faced some of the best teams in the WNBA. However, they’ve already covered against Connecticut and the Minnesota Lynx, not to mention their Thursday meeting with the Liberty. Overall, Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog this year.
New York failed to cover on Thursday, but bettors added a point to the lead. I pocket that extra point and take Los Angeles to cover again.
Parlay Sparks vs Liberty in the same game (SGP)
Sparks +15.5
Over 168.5
Aari McDonald12+ points
I expect this match to play out largely like Thursday’s, and my parlay in the same match is made up of legs that all came in during this match. That means taking the Sparks to cover with the Over, which these teams comfortably hit in their last meeting.
I’m also taking Aari McDonald to score at least 12 points against the Liberty today. McDonald has been incredibly consistent of late, scoring between 14 and 16 points in each of her last six games, including 15 against New York on Thursday.
Learn how to bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.
Sparks vs. Liberty odds
Sparks vs Liberty live odds
Get the latest Wings vs. Mystics WNBA odds for tonight.
Sparks vs. Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +13.5 (-105) | New York -13.5 (-115)
- Money line: Los Angeles +850 | New York -1,600
- More less: Over 166.5 (-110) | Under 166.5 (-110)
Spread Sparks vs Liberty and Over/Under analysis
- New York is just 6-10 ATS this season, while Los Angeles is 7-8-1 ATS this year.
- The Liberty are 1-8 ATS this season when entering a game as double-digit favorites.
- The Sparks are playing with an average total of 161.6 this season, compared to 165.0 for the Liberty.
- New York has reached the Over in four of its last five games, while Los Angeles has reached the Under in three of its last four games.
Sparks vs. Liberty Trend
The Sparks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Liberty. Check out more WNBA betting trends for Sparks vs. Liberty.
Sparks vs. Liberty Game Info
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York |
| Date: | Saturday 06/22/2024 |
| Trick : | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Latest injuries from Sparks vs Liberty
Sparks : Lexie Brown G (Out), Cameron Brink F (Out), Azura Stevens F (Out).
Freedom: Nyara Sabally F (Out), Betnijah Laney-Hamilton G (Out), Courtney Vandersloot G (Out).
Find our latest injury reports from the WNBA.
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