A little over a month ago, the Cubs and manager Craig Counsell made their first visit to Milwaukee of the season.
You must have at least a vague memory of how you felt during that four-game series, right?
The Cubs were in a worrying 3-9 stretch, but they were still above .500 at 27-26 and in second place in the division, a few games behind the surprisingly strong Brewers. Top starter Justin Steele, who was expected to pitch the opener, had yet to earn a win, but this would be only his sixth attempt. Fans at American Family Field did a lot of booing for local Counsell’s son – gone after a stellar nine-year run in the local dugout – but the Cubs now had the real man, the team’s talented leader. -even.
It was only Memorial Day, for Christ’s sake. How dire could the Cubs really be in such a dire situation?
Well, now we know.
One of baseball’s most disappointing teams returned to Brewtown on Friday, and there may not be enough Blatz and Schlitz on the planet to blur the reality of the Cubs’ problems — in last place at 38-44 and a confidence-crushing 10½ games back in the standings as a three-game series began — it has happened.
Then the Brewers continued to confound the Cubs, scoring all of their runs in a 4-2 win on Jackson Chourio’s fourth-inning grand slam off starter Jameson Taillon, who covered six innings.
And before anyone says the word “wild card,” stop. Yes, the Cubs entered Friday four games behind in this category. That seemed like a pretty low number until it was realized that every National League team with heart was doing better – with only the Marlins and Rockies, amateur teams, behind the Cubs in the standings. general. The idea that these Cubs, with all their enormous flaws, are outperforming a half-dozen or more teams that are at least moderately functional — and in some cases much better than that — is almost laughable.
Or you can rely on the experts who have slide rules and protractors in their pockets. According to FanGraphs’ projection models, the Cubs have a 3.9% chance of winning the division and a 12.1% chance of making the playoffs. The Brewers, on the other hand, are basking in percentages of 74.5 and 86.6 respectively.
The Brewers aren’t kidding, in case anyone raised an eyebrow.
While the desperate Cubs were relieved to avoid a four-game sweep in San Francisco by winning Thursday’s finale, the Brewers — winners of four straight, four straight series overall and eight straight home series — enjoyed what we have to assume was a delicious day off. They spent nearly 80 days in first place and came in the midst of a 20-12 stretch in which they cooked by going 6-1 against the Cubs and White Sox to end May and start June. Counsell’s former team held a double-digit advantage over not only the Cubs but the Reds as well, with the Cardinals perhaps the only realistic challenger in the game for the NL Central title.
And the way things played out with captain Pat Murphy’s determined team should deeply impress, if not leave all of baseball in awe.
While the Cubs have drowned in misery in the bottom of the bullpen, the Brewers have made no excuses, despite as many pitfalls and obstacles in the pitching department as any team in the game. Ace Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles. Standout starter Brandon Woodruff is out for the season. Brand-new trade pick Dallas Keuchel became the 14th different starting pitcher the Brewers have used on Wednesday, a stunning number compared to the Cubs’ much more navigable total of nine. Murphy fed the ball to veteran Freddy Peralta and, behind him, a who’s-who of “Who?”
And look what a bullpen can do even without its best slugger, Devin Williams, who won’t make his season debut until after the All-Star break. While the Cubs came out swinging after blowing 17 saves, the Brewers blew nine fewer while persisting with a 3.16 ERA in the bullpen (the third-lowest in baseball) despite being tied with the Giants for most innings pitched in the bullpen.
In other words: the Brewers team entered this series having pitched 40⅔ more innings than the Cubs team, but having given up 37 fewer runs. Holy Hasenpfeffer Incorporated.
It has to irk Cubs president Jed Hoyer — a target of well-deserved criticism — that the Brewers got a surprisingly tighter performance (17 of 18 in saves, 1.72 ERA) from Trevor Megill, who was waived by the Cubs after the 2021 season. Megill saved Game 1 with a perfect ninth.
And Dairyland absolutely has to love the fact that even though Counsell entered the season with so much hype, the 65-year-old Murphy — Counsell’s longtime coach and longtime college coach — is the one leading the race for the starting job. NL manager of the year. Murphy, who won exactly 1,000 games as a college captain, should know a thing or two.
For the Cubs, there are no such positive vibes. Take, for example, Steele, who still doesn’t have that first “W” despite his excellent throws over the past month. It’s not his fault. Maybe he’ll break through on Saturday. Anyone want to bet on it?
NOTE: The Cubs pushed buttons and pulled levers on their machine Friday, affecting several relievers. Right-hander Ethan Roberts was recalled from Triple-A Iowa, and fellow right-hander Jorge Lopez was drafted to Iowa. Lopez pitched a scoreless inning in his debut.
In related moves, Keegan Thompson was placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to June 27) with a fractured rib and Vinny Nittoli was designated for assignment. Veteran Lopez, 31, recently landed with the Cubs on a minor league deal and hasn’t pitched in the major leagues since throwing his glove into the stands after being ejected from a Mets game on May 29.
