In two games where the offense struggled, the defense could make a difference. But it’s possible that the New Orleans Saints’ defense, rather than the Bill Belichick-led New England Patriots, is the deciding factor. Let’s take a look at the odds and best betting predictions for today’s match.
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Saints vs. Patriots betting lines, start times and more
All odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- spread: Patriot-1
- Money line: Saints (-108); Patriots (-112)
- Size disk: 39
- game time: 1 p.m. ET
- Place: gillette stadium
- path: cbs
Saints vs. Patriots Prediction
Neither the Saints nor the Patriots offenses have been impressive so far this season. The Saints are averaging less than 300 total yards per game (285.3), and the Patriots replaced embattled quarterback Mac Jones in the third quarter of last week’s tough loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
So, the storyline then turns to defense, and this is where the matchup gets tense:
- The Patriots rank 10th in total defense (297.0 ypg), while the Saints rank 11th (304.3).
- The Patriots rank 10th in pass defense (196.0 ypg), while the Saints rank 12th (201.0).
- The Patriots rank 11th in rushing defense (101.0 ypg), while the Saints rank 12th (103.3).
The Saints have the advantage in scoring defense, allowing just 19.0 points per game (ninth-ranked), while the Patriots rank 21st at 24.3 points per game. Three of the Saints’ four opponents this season have held fewer than 20 points (their season-high was 20 points against the Carolina Panthers in Week 2). If you look back to last season, the Saints have held opponents to 20 points or less 12 times in a row.
More: NFL Week 5 Odds and Betting Trends vs. Spreads
The Saints’ defense is also tied for fourth in interceptions with five, and their 28 passes defended lead the NFL. Meanwhile, the Patriots have intercepted just one pass all season.
None of this is good news for the Patriots, who have struggled much of the season. Not only have the Patriots not scored more than 20 points in any game this season, but their scoring totals have dropped in each game, from 20 against the Philadelphia Eagles to 17 against the Miami Dolphins and then against the New York Jets The Jets’ 15 points ended with three against the Dallas Cowboys last week.
Belichick looked like he had seen enough of Jones. Last week, Belichick replaced his starting quarterback with Bailey Zappe in the second half, so who knows how long Jones’ stranglehold will last this week. Although Jones posted a sub-50 passer rating last week (39.9) for just the third time in his young career, the Patriots’ offensive woes aren’t all his fault.
New England ranks 28th in yards per carry (3.4) and 23rd in rushing offense (93.5 YPG). The Patriots have rushed for less than 100 yards in three of four games. The team’s leading rusher, Rhamondre Stevenson, entered the league this week ranking only 32nd in the league in total rushing yards (162).
The advantage for New England is that the Saints offense is equally inept. For example, Derek Carr’s passer rating (80.1) is actually worse than Jones’ (80.8). The Saints also didn’t score a touchdown in seven quarters of offense. The last time was in the first quarter of Week 4 against the Green Bay Packers.
Even the return of running back Alvin Kamara didn’t change much for the Saints offense. Kamara leads the Saints in rushing but only has 51 yards on the ground. Although he caught 13 passes, they only produced 33 yards, the fewest receiving yards in NFL history by a player with 10 or more catches.
Undoubtedly, there is nothing spectacular here. But someone has to win here, and my choice is the Saints. I would actually go with the moneyline on this game because the odds are better than if you only get one point in the game (-115).
When the baseline is one and you score points, you’re basically picking the loser to win the game. So why not go with the more likely option?
Best bet: Saints on the moneyline (-108 at DraftKings SportsBook)
Picks and predictions for every game
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