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Game Day 22, Oilers vs Panthers, Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final
The 2024 Stanley Cup between the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers is both an easy and difficult series to understand.
The easy part is that Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has had a legendary performance so far, stealing two games in which his team has taken about half as many high-quality shots as the Oilers.
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No matter how quickly and accurately the Oilers move the puck, Bobrovsky is one step ahead of them and ready to cover the net.
He has to be the clear front-runner for series MVP at this point.
But the series is not that simple. For Edmonton, Stuart Skinner performed well in net except for a stale puck play in Game 3, but Florida often scored on its limited Grade A shooting.
What is happening? Oilers forward Zach Hyman has a good answer, but first here’s the problem broken down into numbers.
The Cult of Hockey’s video review features the Oilers with 43 Grade A shots, the Panthers with just 25.
But when it comes to the most dangerous subset of 5-alarm shots, it’s about even, Oilers with 19, Panthers with 17. If you dig even deeper and look at the handful of chances to score absolutely deadly, I suspect Florida. would have a little more than the Oilers.
But based solely on the number of Grade A shots, we estimate that the Oilers should have scored about six or seven more goals, while the Panthers should have scored about three fewer. This calculation assumes all things are equal in the goaltending department, which has not been the case.
If you think our numbers are lopsided, I’ll note that they’re consistent with numbers found by cutting-edge statistics firm Stathletes, who estimated that Edmonton, based on the quality of its shooting, should have 5.44 more goals. and Florida should have 2.98 fewer goals, about the same amount as the Cult of Hockey calculations.
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Hyman-pothose
What is going on? This goes back to the idea that when it comes to the best chances, Florida gets more and certainly benefits more, due to their excellent shooting, puck luck and the difference between the two goalies beginning.
Edmonton Oilers forward Zack Hyman said it best while speaking to the media on Friday.
He accomplished both things that plague the Oilers.
When asked how the series got out of hand for the Oilers, Hyman said, “I don’t think it spiraled, I think we’re down 3-0 because we gave up some freebies.” It’s not like we’re absolutely dominated by a team better than us. There were moments in the game where they showed a little more maturity than us and they didn’t do us any favors. We had to work extremely hard to achieve all the goals we needed to achieve. I think if we can eliminate those giveaways and play like we can and go to the tough areas, we’ll give ourselves a chance every game. All you have to do is win one and get the momentum going. We only focus on one.
Yes, Hyman succeeds, with the Oilers plagued by all-too-human brain farts, mental errors leading to the most dangerous of chances against, which the Panthers put unerringly in the Edmonton net.
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Asked about his team’s power play and whether the Oilers have good looks at the net to score, Hyman then explained the second reason the Oilers are losing, the obvious one, Bobrovsky: “There’s a clean look,” did he declare. “He makes good saves.”
During today’s press conference, Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch had the same point of view when talking about how often Florida takes advantage of its chances thanks to Edmonton’s mistakes. Edmonton has an uncanny ability to turn a non-threatening game situation into a goal against, shooting themselves into the skate on multiple occasions.
“It’s very disappointing. That’s pretty much the game. The game is about mistakes. A lot of times when you look at the plays that are made – the sauce passes, the one-timers, the fakes, stuff like that – but it’s usually just about forcing the opposition to make a mistake and taking advantage of it . I think we forced Florida to make mistakes. I think that’s reflected in the number of scoring chances we have and the very dangerous scoring chances that showed we forced them to make mistakes, but we have to keep pushing, force them to make more no more mistakes and now he is capitalizing on them.
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Asked about the need to pass less and shoot more, he replied: “Our shot attempts were numerous. There is this element of luck. Like Broberg’s goal. It’s luck. We didn’t have anyone in front of the net. We had someone on the side and their defender was hit. If you shoot enough pucks, things will go in. But if you’re shooting pucks where there’s little chance of them going in, then you have to defend.
PS Knoblauch refuses to raise his hand on the lineup but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a nice surprise, Sam Gagner in the match.
Prediction: If he plays, Gagner will score a goal. Are you with me, my friends?
To the Cult of Hockey
STAPLES: Oilers will keep losing until they stop fighting
LEAVINS: Player ratings in Game 3 loss
McCURDY: Trends that need to reverse for Oilers to beat FLA.
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